Is Maine the Oldest State? No!

As Governor LePage confronts the challenge of cutting the state budget he may hear the refrain that Maine is the oldest state with fewer people working or creating jobs, with more state services needed by the elderly, with an expensive state workforce of older workers providing those services. That is not true. By sheer numbers it can never be true. That would go to California. In fact, California has largest number of almost any category you could pick. More realistically, we have to look at percentages. But it turns out that many of the commentators, from TV, radio, blogs and other media and our political officials haven't looked at the data. They've just heard Maine is the oldest. So what state would you guess is the oldest? That's right, it is Florida.

The US Census 2009 estimates show Maine certainly has a large percentage of population who are elderly, ranked as having the 3rd largest percentage of the population 65 and over. Florida has 17.2%, West Virginia has 15.8%, Maine has 15.6%, followed closely by Pennsylvania with 15.4% of its population 65 and over. The data on the age of the population from the 2010 Census have yet to be published, but it's not likely to vary much from the 2009 estimate.

Maybe it is that the observers of trends are counting those 55 and over or 40 and over as old. Census estimates of those 55 and over yields the same ranking. Maine is the third oldest state. Forty and over is the point at which state and federal laws protect you from age discrimination so perhaps that is the magic number for old age. Nope. It turns out the Census does not present the data in that manner. Its compare ages 35 to 44, 45 to 54, 55 to 64 and so on so observers aren't counting those 40 and above as old.

If you look back at the 2000 Census of every single person rather than the 2009 estimate, it showed Maine (14.4%) to be the 7th oldest state, not the oldest. One of our fellow New England states, Rhode Island (14.5%), had a slightly greater percentage 65 and over.

The percentage of the US population 65 and over in 2000 was 12.4% and is now estimated to be 12.9%. Maine is joined by 12 other states with an increase of 1% or more in the population 65 and over between 2000 and 2009. Those states are as diverse as Alaska (which has the smallest percentage of the population over 65), another New England neighbor, Vermont, and states as different as Delaware and Hawaii. On the other side of the coin, only eight states had a decrease or stayed the same in the percentage 65 and over.

So where does that put us? We are rightfully worried about an aging population that must be supported by a smaller percentage of young people. The Census Bureau converts that question into a statistic called old-age dependency. Maine is the 4th in dependency of elderly (65 and over) on the working age population (18-64). with Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Florida having higher levels of dependency. So let's calm down about Maine being the oldest state. Sure there are lots of issues to face with aging baby boomers in Maine, and many of them do relate to hard choices that will be made by Governor LePage and the legislature, but the nation also faces them.